Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(6:30) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to SF 19, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.19 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model