4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 2, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP