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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 45

Washington Commanders 6 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon to DAL 42 for 3 yards (30-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.73 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model