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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 34

Washington Commanders 19 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at DAL 29 for 5 yards (50-S.Lee).

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model