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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP