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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-T.Gafford. 81-B.Walters to JAX 20 for 4 yards (31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model