Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 42 for 19 yards (48-A.Ellis). PENALTY on JAX-48-A.Ellis, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.35 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model