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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to DEN 31, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Raymond to JAX 47 for 22 yards (30-C.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model