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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 75

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to JAX 30, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.89 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model