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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 40

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-45-T.Gafford, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.33 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP