Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Denver Broncos 17

(2:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.36 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model