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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 60

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to JAX 14, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.91 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP