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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 22

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model