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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 11

Detroit Lions 10 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:59) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model