4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 9

Detroit Lions 16 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model