Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 13 – Detroit Lions 25

(10:21) 6-T.Morstead punts 19 yards to DET 46, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.13 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model