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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 33

Detroit Lions 25 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model