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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 43

Detroit Lions 28 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 6-S.Martin punts 32 yards to NO 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.61 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP