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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 68-K.Murphy reported in as eligible. 32-C.Michael left end to HOU 37 for 5 yards (27-Q.Demps).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.48 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model