Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 89

Houston Texans 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to GB 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-M.Evans to GB 38 for no gain (50-A.Dent). PENALTY on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 38.

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.55 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model