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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 10-J.Schum punts 40 yards to HOU 11, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-28-J.Hawkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model