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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 10-J.Schum punts 48 yards to HOU 21, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 37 for 16 yards (28-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.31 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model