4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:16) (Shotgun) 22-A.Ripkowski left guard to HOU 47 for 1 yard (75-V.Wilfork).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.72 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.82 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model