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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 36

Houston Texans 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to GB 2, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-20-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.67 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +0.87 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -3.60 EP
PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP