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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 21 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(:12) 10-J.Schum punts 36 yards to HOU 12, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP