Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(6:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to GB 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-R.Cobb pushed ob at GB 47 for 21 yards (43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.13 EP
50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model