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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 4

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP