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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 32-S.Ware for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.10 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model