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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to ATL 26, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-E.Weems to ATL 25 for -1 yards (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model