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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 10
Atlanta Falcons 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 27
What Actually Happened
(9:00) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 24-D.Freeman (51-F.Zombo).
The Three Options
GO
+3.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.50 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth +0.05 EP
KICK
+1.95 EP
- 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT
-0.05 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
