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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model