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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 34

New England Patriots 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right end to LA 28 for 6 yards (22-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model