4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to NE 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-D.Amendola to NE 16 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.48 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model