Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 84

New England Patriots 17 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(12:56) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to LA 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-P.Cooper to LA 45 for 6 yards (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.36 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model