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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.44 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP