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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 27

New England Patriots 20 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model