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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 67

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to LA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-P.Cooper to LA 28 for 4 yards (38-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model