Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 57

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(2:33) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to LA 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King. Penalty on LA-15-B.Marquez, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.17 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model