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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 11

What Actually Happened

(6:23) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to PIT 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on PIT-33-F.Toussaint, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model