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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 11 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model