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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to NYG 15, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.32 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -2.22 EP
  • 6% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 94% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP