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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 35

New York Giants 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(11:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle intended for 87-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 28-S.Davis at PIT 6. 28-S.Davis to PIT 47 for 41 yards (77-J.Jerry). PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at PIT 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model