4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to NYG 44, Center-60-G.Warren. 17-D.Harris to NYG 45 for 1 yard (98-V.Williams, 14-S.Coates). PENALTY on PIT, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 45.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.22 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP