Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
New York Giants
4th & 9 at the 24
New York Giants 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21
What Actually Happened
(7:04) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at PIT 32 for -8 yards (90-R.Mathews).
The Three Options
GO
+0.66 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.90 EP
- 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP
KICK
+0.41 EP
- 59% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
- 41% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
