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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 57

New York Giants 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:39) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model