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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 49

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to NYG 9, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -2.40 EP
  • 3% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 97% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model