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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 6-C.Sturgis 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.24 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model