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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 15

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.06 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP