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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 2-M.Nugent 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 8, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP