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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 29

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model